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If ...

If only I would have studied computer science in college I would have earned twice as much as I am earning today. If Modi would have been born in the era of Nehru, India would have been a developed country today. If Hitler would have died in the assassination attempt there would have been no holocaust. If Kennedy wouldn't have been shot then America would have seen far more development. If I would have brought that stock 5 years ago for $10,000, I would have been a millionaire today. If ... How many times you have come across similar phrases? Sometimes you would have felt that you have let a huge opportunity pass right under your nose. Or maybe if you'd have done things differently you would have been in better circumstance than what you are in now. There is a possibility that it would have come true exactly as you have predicted. But there is a much larger probability that it would not have happened exactly the way you would have thought it will. There are two probl...

Winning by passiveness

Winners should be more active than others, they should be the alpha of the pack, the leader of the clan, stronger than the masses, intelligent than the group, courageous than the army and cleverer than the coterie. Or is it? How many active people have been sacked in an organization? How many alphas have been reduced to rubble? How many leaders shamed? How many strong people have been killed? How many intelligent people have been fooled? How many courageous people have been imprisoned? And how many clever people have been taken for a ride? So, are all these traits - strength, intelligence, courage - really needed to be a winner? Could be. Will you not be a winner if you do not have these traits? Lot of people would say no, you can't win because you do not have these traits then are not capable to compete with the people who have these. Agreed. But what if these folks are removed from the scene? Can you win, then? Can you wait out till the winners move out, and then move in taking...

How to run a ponzi scheme

Charles Ponzi, an Italian, who migrated to the United States in the first decade of 20th century, was a broke guy who came to US to live the American dream. After a lot of misadventure and spending a prison stint he came up with a business idea to double the money in 90 days by investing in securities. The initial investors were paid promptly and the word quickly spread out. People were soon queuing up in front of his office to invest. The initial investors were paid by the money pouring in from the future investors. If you think carefully such business model actually needs no business. You can keep paying the top investors by the folks who are investing at the bottom. The only way the business can fail is when the bottom runs out of steam. And that is precisely how the company failed. Eventually there will be no new investors to invest in the business and the whole model would come crashing down and in a very short time.  What exactly is a Ponzi scheme? It is basically a bus...

The Scale Problem

Someone asked me a logical question in a party - Suppose you are able to fold a newspaper 100 times , how much thick would that bundle be? He also dropped us a hint - remember, each time you fold it, it doubles in thickness - so answer judiciously. Assume for now that in fact you can fold it 100 times without running out of paper. Of course we cannot work out without a calculator. But remember, it is an exercise on how your brain comprehends such a problem. We were asked to take a guess. We did, but before you read any further - pause and think - What would your guess be? Some of us guessed that it would be as thick as a brick. One guy said 4 stories tall. Someone with a scientific outlook suggested that it might extend upto the sun from the earth, drawing many disdainful eyes. So, what was your guess? The way most people thought even after being given the hint, was that it would be 100 times (or 100x) the thickness of the newspaper. You might think that the claim that the thick...

Why are unreachable grapes, sour?

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Why is it better to agree with your boss than to disagree? Why do testers make a lot of noise even for small defect? Why should you criticise a movie that you don't want to go? Why are unreachable grapes, sour? Why do bosses command rather than consult? Why should you openly ask for a raise or a promotion? Why should you always ask for a discount on a purchase? ........... and the list goes on. I am sure you might know the answer to all of these almost by intuition. There are many more simple scenarios that your brain automatically figures out. Actually all the questions above are similar and the answer to all of them are, well, kind of same. Before we move further, let us look at another scenario. Suppose you have a chocolate bar and two fighting kids. You have to divide the chocolate between them so that none of them accuse you of being biased. And yes, you do not have a tape or anyway to measure it. How would you divide to avoid being biased? Pause for a momen...

Are irrational behaviours really irrational?

Introduction  Are irrational behaviours really irrational? Not so much if you understand Nash's Equilibrium. When I first read about 'Game Theory' I was hooked. It presented me with answers to the whole gamut of irrationality, the human behaviour presents. The behaviour of humans such as - why everyone in my state of Uttar Pradesh puts a water pump in their cooperative water supply to suck the maximum amount of water. If no one uses the pump then the net output is the same as when everyone uses it. In fact the optimal strategy should be that no one puts a pump and water would flow in to every house, without the extra cost of electricity needed to run the pump. Why do people still put pumps when the other solution is a cost effective one. Take another example - why do people do not choose to maintain the cleanliness or the sanctity of any collective enterprise - such as roads, railways, gardens, parks, etc? After all, we all will be better off when we collectively deci...

A treatise on Measuring Agile Performance

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Introduction       Measuring Agile sounds like an oxymoron, Isn't it? Why would you like to collect metrics on projects that follow the 'Agile' methodology? Do you really need to measure some aspects of your project? You have a product owner, the scrum master and the end users who would ultimately define the quality of your software. They are responsible folks and they would track the work. No metrics needed. Also, would this not take away the flexibility that 'Agile' proclaims? Well, yes and no! I'd rather take the middle path.        Yes - because many organizations require that the team members 'generate' metrics that the management can ingest and track the performance. The organizations overburden the teams to track the metrics that is not relevant for the project. In doing so the agile stops being agile and starts resembling the heavily metric based development methodology like the CMMi. Now, I am not proclaiming that CMMi or other simila...